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Tuesday, October 7, 2014

When Not to Trade?


What is the criteria for a no trade? The image above is a screenshot of the EURJPY as is now. As a trade goes it meets all of our requirements as set forth in lessons 1 - 4. Looks like a good trade setup right? Well it does if all you're looking at is our 3 timeframes.  However the D1 tells a different story. As one can see there is a strong support at 136.000 which has resisted 2 attempts to break through so therefore there could be a substantial rebound.

I would not eliminate this trade entirely but rather just wait to see how it all pans out. As of composing this post PA is still around 90 pips away from reach this level of support. This is where patience becomes the virtue. It looks highly likely it could do so and if that being the case a rebound is imminent since it has held back 2 attempts already. They say the 'third time is the charm'. How would one know if the 136.000 will hold a 3rd attempt? We know there is no such thing as an absolute certainty in the forex world.

Using a fibonacci retracement tool would help. If the rebound reaches 50 - 61.8% it would give a good indication of a bullish bias, however if it only reaches a 38.2% it could well indicate just the opposite.
The bottom line is just don't trade because you feel you must because that's just not so. Only trade when you have a clearer picture of what is going on.

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